The dollar sits at the centre of the global financial system, so its direction is felt well beyond foreign-exchange desks. A stronger dollar can lower some import costs while increasing the burden of dollar-linked debt.
For businesses and policymakers, the priority is understanding which parts of the balance sheet are exposed before volatility arrives.




The supply-chain angle is the part I would keep watching. Freight costs can move through the economy long before they are obvious in consumer data.
The refinery disruption matters most when spare capacity is already thin. The interaction between crude, refining margins and transport costs is the key context here.