The next phase of the rate cycle will be shaped by the balance between cooling inflation and resilient demand. Investors are watching the language around policy, not only the decision itself.
For households, companies and governments, the direction of borrowing costs can matter as much as the level. A small change in expectations can move currencies, bonds and equities at the same time.
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The supply-chain angle is the part I would keep watching. Freight costs can move through the economy long before they are obvious in consumer data.
The refinery disruption matters most when spare capacity is already thin. The interaction between crude, refining margins and transport costs is the key context here.