Emerging markets are adapting to a dollar that remains powerful but less predictable. Policymakers are rebuilding buffers, while investors are looking for countries with credible fiscal plans and domestic demand.
The result is a more selective market rather than a single global trade.




The supply-chain angle is the part I would keep watching. Freight costs can move through the economy long before they are obvious in consumer data.
The refinery disruption matters most when spare capacity is already thin. The interaction between crude, refining margins and transport costs is the key context here.